Decision Desk HQ on calling the 2024 Presidential Election

Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) has upended the election forecasting landscape, challenging traditional networks with its innovative data driven approach and cementing itself as the fastest and most accurate prognosticator of elections. Scott Tranter, the majority owner of DDHQ, explains the company's origins: "Decision Desk HQ was founded by three other people back in 2012, and I had been a fan of what they did. They started just doing this on Twitter. They looked at the process and they said, "We can do this better than the networks.”

Tranter's involvement with DDHQ grew over time, from being a client to becoming an investor and eventually the majority owner.

One of the most significant differences between DDHQ and legacy providers lies in their data collection methods. Traditional polling organizations often rely on outdated infrastructure, primarily using phone banks to gather results. Tranter notes, "The legacy providers had not had a lot of competition before... They would send thousands of people out on election night to county offices, where they would call in results." This process is not only slow but also prone to errors, as missed calls or busy signals can delay reporting.

In contrast, DDHQ employs advanced technology to streamline data collection. "When we started, we built a scraper," Tranter explains. "We build scrapers to collect data from 4000+ counties across America." This approach allows DDHQ to gather information from various sources rapidly, significantly reducing the time it takes to report results.

Moreover, while some data still requires personnel to be physically present at county offices, DDHQ has optimized this process. "Maybe they don't have to call somebody; maybe they just load it up on their phone and type it in," Tranter adds. This hybrid model combines human oversight with technological efficiency, enabling faster and more accurate data reporting.

The 2024 Election Night: A Data-Driven Approach

DDHQ's success in being the first to call the 2024 presidential election was rooted in their meticulous preparation and real-time data analysis. Tranter outlines their strategy: "We spend a lot of time doing a lot of the analysis beforehand because all election race projection is its intermediate algebra. I got to figure out how many votes candidate A has, how many votes candidate B has, and then I got to figure out how many votes are left."

The process begins months before election night, with DDHQ analyzing absentee and early voting data. This preliminary analysis led them to adjust their internal forecast, giving Donald Trump a 60% chance of winning, up from their public forecast of 54%.

On election night, DDHQ's team was laser-focused on key battleground states. Tranter recalls the pivotal moments:

 "By the nine to 10 o'clock hour, we were ready to call North Carolina for Donald Trump, and we were about ready to call Georgia for Trump. And in that 9:30, 10 o'clock hour is when we were telling folks internally, 'Hey, this is a 10 run lead in the fifth inning.'"

Despite their internal confidence, DDHQ maintained rigorous standards for public projections. Tranter explains, "Publicly, you have to wait until all the other states are called and you got to be 99% sure. So you can't call a game and by 10 runs in the fifth inning, you got to at least get to the ninth."

DDHQ officially called Pennsylvania for Trump at 1:23 AM, approximately four hours ahead of other networks. This early call was a testament to their efficient data collection and analysis processes.

The Future of Polling and Predictions

Reflecting on the accuracy of polls in the 2024 election, Tranter offers a nuanced perspective: "On average, our polling average missed between one and a half and two and a half points against Trump in each state."

He argues that this level of accuracy is actually an improvement from previous cycles: "So as opposed to 2020 when there were four and five point misses or 2016 when there were five and six point misses, this cycle was a whole lot better in terms of not in terms of underestimating Donald Trump at one and a half to two and a half point misses, you are within the margin of error of a poll."

Tranter emphasizes the need for a more nuanced understanding of polls: "Polls are not tools of precision. They're tools of trend and tools of directionality, not anything else."He suggests that the public's interpretation of polls, rather than the polls themselves, may be the issue.

The Emotional Landscape of American Politics

Tranter draws an interesting parallel between the intensity of American political emotions and European football fandom. He notes, "The emotion around US politics makes a European football game look like a tea party." This heightened emotional state, he argues, often leads to over interpretation of small polling margins and contributes to the polarized political climate.

Technological Challenges and Future Improvements

Despite their success, DDHQ faced significant technological challenges in covering 50,000 elections simultaneously. Tranter candidly admits, "We had some technical challenges we had to overcome while collecting live data across tens of thousands of local races" He emphasizes the high-stakes nature of their work: "We don't get to fail in beta in a staging environment. We fail on live television."

Looking forward, DDHQ is reevaluating their approach to covering such a vast number of races. Tranter explains, "We're reevaluating how we cover 40, 50,000 races going forward. We know it's important to do, but we've got to figure out, we've got to be better at engineering, engineering a solution, and not just saying, 'Hey, we can do it.'"

The Future of Election Forecasting

As DDHQ continues to refine its processes and expand its reach, the company stands at the forefront of a new era in election forecasting. Their success in the 2024 election demonstrates the power of innovative data collection methods, rigorous analysis, and a willingness to challenge established norms.

Tranter's insights into the polling industry's improvements and the persistent challenges of public interpretation highlight the complex landscape of election forecasting. As the political climate continues to evolve, companies like DDHQ will play a crucial role in providing accurate, timely information to the public and media alike.

As Scott Tranter aptly puts it: "We're not here just because it's a business; we're here because we love elections." This passion drives their commitment to providing reliable information that enhances public understanding of electoral dynamics while challenging traditional methods that have dominated the industry for decades. As they look toward future elections, Decision Desk HQ continues to refine its processes and expand its reach, ensuring they remain at the forefront of electoral forecasting innovation.